So the BCS rankings are out -- so what?

On a walk today, I admired the falling leaves and cool breeze. Even the light sprinkle was a nice reminder of why fall is my favorite season. Another reason? College football!

Halfway through the season, there are a handful of teams that are undefeated and multiple times that of one- and two-loss teams vying for the other spots in the Top 25. Fresh from the first BCS rankings of the 2009-2010 season are my thoughts on the teams that made the cut and what the rankings mean for this year’s bowl season.

1. Florida Gators (6-0)
What’s so great about this team? I’m kind of getting sick of America’s obsession with Tebow & the Gators. It reminds me a little of Ohio State a few years back. Seriously – they’re good, but not the best team that’s ever played the game. Also, who are they even playing? Their first two weeks of games consisted of Charleston Southern and Troy (2-4 in the Big South, and 4-2 in the Sun Belt, respectively) – none of which proved anything for a team that is supposed to be the best in the country. The only game that really proved anything about their talent was a couple weeks ago against LSU, in which the Tigers held them to one touchdown and a couple field goals. What I’ve seen this year shows me that when it’s a nobody team, Florida will blow them out of the water, but if the opponent has any gusto, the Gators have to fight for that W (see last week’s close win against Arkansas (3-3, SEC) for more proof). The only reason this team is #1 and not #2 is because they started at #1, not because they deserve it. They will have to beat Alabama in the SEC Championship game if they want to see Pasadena in January.

2. Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0)
Now this is a team that has earned a #1 ranking yet doesn’t receive it. They have beat 3 Top 25 teams (Virginia Tech, Mississippi, and South Carolina), handily beat a team that Florida almost lost to (Arkansas) and their smallest margin of victory has been two touchdowns. However, because Florida was #1 at the beginning of the year, and the Tide have had to climb up from #5, I don’t think the human pollsters have seen enough to sway mindsets. They have a game against #9 LSU in a few weeks, but even with winning out the rest of the season, they will have to beat Florida in the SEC Championship game if they want a shot at the final bowl.

3. Texas Longhorns (6-0)
Texas is actually sitting in a pretty good spot at #3, with two teams above them who, by season’s end, will have eliminated one of themselves. As long as they continue to win out, they should have no problem getting into the National Championship game. The problems I foresee are Colt McCoy’s completions and the relative difficulty of the rest of their season. McCoy has thrown at least one interception each game this year and was knocked to the ground over 15 times in last week’s game against Oklahoma. I’m sure he’s a great guy, but at times throughout the year, he and the rest of the Longhorns really haven’t been playing like they want to win. With the second half of the season bringing games against two more Top 25 opponents, they will really need to step up their heart if they want to earn what will surely be hard Ws.

4. Boise State Broncos (6-0)
This may be as high as they rank, if teams continue to go undefeated. However, they may not go much lower because the chance of them losing any of the cupcake games they have left is pretty low. Boise State is not a bad team, but with how they recently played against Tulsa (also not a horrible team), I don’t think their 6-0 record constitutes a #1 or even #2 ranking. I can’t really use the rest of the season (in conference) against them, but it certainly isn’t going to help them in terms of BCS rankings. A BCS at-large bid is theirs to lose.

5. Cincinnati Bearcats (6-0)
Although they’re undefeated, Cincinnati shouldn’t count on that to determine the rest of their season. Many are saying that they should win out, but they still have to play Connecticut (4-2 this year, but responsible for Cincinnati’s only loss last season), #23 West Virginia, and at #20 Pittsburgh. They will need to rely on what happens above and below them to determine where they’ll be at the end of the season. On the bright side, however, backup QB Zach Collaros seems to handle the team fine in the wake of Tony Pike’s forearm injury.

6. Iowa Hawkeyes (7-0)
With the exception of the early season win over Iowa State (3-3, Big 12) the Hawkeyes have had to fight for every win they’ve had, with their biggest margin of victory being only 11 points (at Penn State). A few weeks ago they only prevented overtime at home against Arkansas State (1-4, Sun Belt) because of a late field goal. Their rise to the group of the undefeated has been ugly at best and lucky at worst. That being said, the teams that have the best chance of unseating Iowa are Michigan State this weekend and #19 Ohio State on November 14. Without losing to both of those teams, however, Iowa’s chances of going to the Rose Bowl look pretty good.

7. USC Trojans (5-1)
The nation’s top one-loss team has got a tougher road ahead of them then behind them, to be sure. Their first six opponents have a combined record of 18-20 (two teams have won only one game) while their second six are 24-13 (only one has an even record and two of them are Top 25 teams). The worst mark on the Trojans’ record is their 3-point loss to Washington in Week 3. To come back from this and earn enough credit from pollsters, USC will have to continue their winning streak with decided victories and strong showings against Oregon and Arizona.

8. TCU Horned Frogs (6-0)
Compared with the other potential BCS buster Boise State, TCU looks to have a better opportunity. The rest of their season brings two Top 25 teams (at #16 BYU and #18 Utah) who, if beaten, may vault the Horned Frogs past the Broncos and earn them a spot in a BCS game. However, those games are sure to be tough, especially the visit to BYU, a team that opened its season with a one-point win against Oklahoma and whose only loss was to a hot and cold Florida State. It will be hard to predict what will happen this weekend, but one thing is for sure – if TCU suffers a loss, it will drop into the ‘teens in the rankings and any hope of a BCS bowl will be gone.

9. LSU Tigers (5-1)
LSU had a week off to recuperate from their close loss to #1 Florida and have two home games (Auburn (5-2, SEC) and Tulane (2-4, C-USA)) to get momentum back before going into #2 Alabama November 7. The win at then #18 Georgia (combined with their record) really helped LSU prove that they deserved a spot in the top 10, but the season isn’t over yet – Auburn will not be an easy game, Alabama will be a tough hurdle, and Arkansas showed Florida trouble. If the Tigers want a good bowl game, they will have to continue fighting the next six weeks.

10. Miami (FL) Hurricanes (5-1)
The Canes can look forward to a relatively easy rest of the season, though a final game against South Florida, a team that has been surprising at times this year, may be tough. The possibility of any of the nine teams ahead of Miami losing is not bad, they just need to keep winning. I know every team “needs to keep winning” to secure their spot, but Miami can’t afford to lose if they want a chance at anything.

11. Oregon Ducks (5-1)
This actually surprised me somewhat. It’s not that I didn’t think they deserved it, but the BCS hasn’t been too kind to the Ducks in recent years. After looking at the human polls, I’m tempted to say the computers actually saved Oregon for this week. Because of their bye, I feel like the coaches and other pollsters may have forgotten a bit about Oregon. The computers, however, still remembered their 5-1 record against some tough opponents and their only loss being to the #4 team in the country. In addition, the computer rankings display Oregon’s strength of schedule which has included three Top 25 opponents to date. If they win out the rest of the season (not an easy feat – #7 USC, #22 Arizona, and in-state rival Oregon State still loom), they may be going to the Rose Bowl for the first time in BCS history.

12. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-1)
Georgia Tech’s win against Virginia Tech last week was needed, but I don’t see much happening with this team until the end of the season versus Georgia. Even with a win there, I don’t see them raising much in the rankings unless multiple teams ahead of them fall. With games such as USC at Oregon and the SEC Championship of Florida and Alabama coming, there will be at least 2 losses that the Yellow Jackets can count on.

13. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-1)
After PSU’s loss to Iowa, they have been coming back and doing well, albeit to relatively poor teams. They visit Michigan this weekend and play host to Ohio State in a few weeks, but even with wins over both of those teams, Paterno’s Nittany Lions need Iowa to lose before season’s end if they want to move up, at least in conference standings.

14. Virginia Tech Hokies (5-2)
Last week the Hokies tried to make a late comeback, but it wasn’t enough to topple Georgia Tech. The rest of the game’s on Virginia Tech’s schedule are not enough to raise them much in the standings, but even one loss will knock them down, as only two of five opponents left have winning records (North Carolina (4-2, ACC) and at East Carolina (4-3, C-USA)).

15. Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-1)
The Cowboys are a little tricky because of their early season loss to Houston. Fluke or not, this loss puts Oklahoma State in a risky position, given what the rest of the season holds. Although the Georgia and Missouri victories were good, Oklahoma State still faces #3 Texas and Texas Tech at home and has to travel to Norman this year for the Bedlam rivalry versus Oklahoma (quite possibly the best 3-loss team in the nation). The chance of the Cowboys getting through those 3 games unscathed is slim at best, though they are the only other team in the Big 12 that controls their shot at a National Championship game. In addition, Colorado (after their recent turn-around) is not a write-off, as the Buffaloes gave Texas a run for their money in the first half and beat #25 Kansas last weekend.

16. BYU Cougars (6-1)
BYU’s season opener victory over Oklahoma, though intensely close, was most certainly their high point this season. Their only loss came to uneven Florida State, and beyond that, they haven’t really played anyone. They have a home game against #8 TCU this weekend and close out the season playing host to #18 Utah – both of these games only mean good things for the Cougars.

17. Houston Cougars (5-1)
Even with a week 2 defeat of #15 Oklahoma State, Houston remains ranked below the Cowboys due to their unfortunate schedule. The only game left that may give them a boost is a November 7 visit to Tulsa – a team that most recently made #4 Boise State fight until the final whistle.

18. Utah Utes (5-1)
An early season close game at then unranked Oregon is the only thing Utah has had this season to show their talent. And all they have proven with their five wins is that they can beat Mountain West teams. They still have to face #8 TCU and #16 BYU on the road, which means bumpy travels for the Utes in the coming weeks.

19. Ohio State Buckeyes (5-2)
The Buckeyes debut with the lowest rank they’ve had in the past 8 seasons. An early loss to then #3 USC dropped Ohio State, but last week’s loss to Purdue (due primarily to turnovers) looked even worse. Two weeks down the road, they face #13 Penn State and #6 Iowa in back-to-back games.

20. Pittsburgh Panthers (6-1)
Although the Panthers hold a 6-1 record, their loss came from North Carolina State, a team with a losing record in the ACC. Also, they have what could turn out to be four tough games in their last five. This weekend they play host to South Florida and then close out the final weeks with home games versus Notre Dame and #5 Cincinnati and must travel to #23 West Virginia.

21. Wisconsin Badgers (5-2)
The Badgers are coming off of losses to two ranked teams, which works against them, and they are playing Purdue (who just beat Ohio State) this Saturday. Other than that, however, Wisconsin doesn’t have much the rest of this season save for a home game versus Michigan.

22. Arizona Wildcats (4-2)
Arizona is in a peculiar position at this point in the season. They have losses to Iowa and Washington, but still have to face California (though overrated, recuperating), Oregon, and USC. The chance of them getting out of this season without another loss is highly unlikely and will probably not be in the Top 25 by the end of the season.

23. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-1)
Though 5-1, West Virginia hasn’t earned any wins worth mentioning and have one loss to Auburn. They still have four games that have the potential to be losses with Connecticut, South Florida, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. The Mountaineers may join the Wildcats’ exit from the Top 25 by season’s end.

24. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-2)
As the year rolls on, South Carolina’s win over then #3 Mississippi in September proves to be less and less impressive. They also have 2 losses to then #21 Georgia (unranked currently) and #2 Alabama. And getting one more big win (would need to be over #1 Florida) seems to be unlikely.

25. Kansas Jayhawks (5-1)
Coming off a hard loss to Colorado, Kansas’ wins don’t look that great. And they still have to face the same three tough games as Oklahoma State. It won’t be easy for the Jayhawks to win any of those games, and may give Kansas State or Nebraska the chance to play in the Big 12 Championship by season’s end.

A few times throughout my analysis I have mentioned “strength of schedule” as an argument for where a team should (or shouldn’t) be. Sometimes it works against teams, and sometimes it works for teams, but I want to offer some clarification on my actual view on strength of schedule, as it can be a tricky concept to discuss. Often teams don’t have any real choice in who they play. Teams in the Pac-10 all have to play each other during conference play while in conferences such as the Big 12 and the SEC teams only have a choice within the other half of their conference. So to use those games against a team wouldn’t really be fair. However, it is the games that a program chooses to play, its non-conference games, that lend insight into where a team should be ranked. I understand that programs schedule “easy” teams to play in their first weeks because it boosts team morale, gets a few wins under the belt, and gives coaches a chance to see their team on the field without risking much. However, I would contend that this actually hurts teams in the end. Not only is a team not proving anything by beating someone that never had a chance in the first place, but it is also damaging to the rest of its season by starting off with walks in the park. That 3-0 start doesn’t look as good when those opponents are struggling just to break even.